I once had a staff whose job was to plan our raw material needs and trigger orders to our suppliers.
Over time, I noticed he was having difficulty making decisions. Should he order this or not? If yes, how much should he order? I felt we were edging towards stocking out on critical raw materials.
So I asked him what’s going on. His replies went something like these:
“Sir, I can order X amount of raw materials based on sales forecast. But it is possible that our customers will buy less from us. Then I will be stuck with excess inventory. ”
“Sir, I don’t want to order too much because it is possible that the inventory will stay in our warehouse for so long that it would be expired when it’s time to use it.”
“Sir, this item is imported and it is possible it will be delayed due to port congestion. I’m having a local source develop an alternative but he is not yet ready with the samples.”
See the pattern? While it is commendable that he thinks of potential problems and contingencies, he was also paralyzed by so many what-ifs.
“Look,” I said, “Everything is possible, but the real question is: is it probable?”
We can’t really predict the future, but one thing I’ve learned is that we can’t live forever on what-ifs. We go by what is likely based on the best available information we have at the time.
That is why some PSDM tools (such as the potential problem analysis part of SAPADAPPA) invites the user to combine “how likely will the event happen?” with “how severe will be the impact if it happens?”
My staff eventually learned the skill of prioritizing his decisions based on what is probable and what is critical. He found the confidence of letting go of relatively far-fetched scenarios.
“Everything is possible. But is it probable?” has saved me from bouts of worry, perfectionism, and analysis paralysis. I do hope this principle will serve you well as it did for me.
#decisionmaking #analysisparalysis #operations #strategy #careercoach
December 16, 2022
0 Comments